By Mathias Henry

Donald Trump has so far sent comparatively fewer market-moving social media posts since being re-elected than during his first term in power, a study by U.S. investment bank JPMorgan has estimated.

The bank's analysts found that only 10% of the 126 posts Trump had published this time around on sensitive topics such as trade tariffs, foreign relations and economics had caused clear currency market moves.

The numbers are picking up though. Last week he sent more than 20 posts linked to those issues, double January's average. That, however, is still well below the 60-a-week he peaked at during his 2018-19 trade rows with Mexico and others.

"Among the different topics, the posts on tariffs have been the biggest market movers," JPMorgan's note published on Monday said, adding that closer to a third of those ones had been market moving.

The largest impact so far has been the more than 2% and 1% falls in Mexico's peso and Canada's dollar, respectively, seen at the start of February when Trump posted he had used emergency powers to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada — a move he postponed two days later.

Others focused on China meanwhile have caused moves in both directions depending on their tone.

The yuan dipped after Trump threatened tariffs over Fentanyl supply shortly after his re-election. But the currency also rose in mid-January after the U.S. president said he had "a very good" phone call with China's President XI Jingping.

JPMorgan's analysts said their backtesting showed that trading on Trump's posts wouldn't have been very profitable either so far.

Buying the dollar versus a basket of G10 high beta currencies, or the most directly-impacted individual currency for between five and 180 minutes after each post would have been "disappointing" they said, estimating no more than a 4% gain even under "highly optimistic" assumptions.

While Trump is sending fewer market moving social media messages at this stage, he has stepped up direct communications from the Oval Office with almost-daily question and answer sessions with journalists.

By Richard Thompson

Gabbard overcame initial skepticism from some Republican senators about her nomination, underscoring Trump's grip on the party.

The GOP-controlled Senate early Wednesday morning voted to confirm Tulsi Gabbard to be President Donald Trump’s director of national intelligence, putting the former congresswoman in charge of the sprawling U.S. intelligence community.

The 52-48 vote was largely along party lines, with nearly all Republicans present voting in favor of Gabbard. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the former longtime GOP leader who has clashed with Trump, was the only Republican who joined all Democrats in voting against her.

Gabbard’s confirmation is a win for Trump and represents yet another example of his dominance over the GOP, where few have shown a willingness to step out of line.

After Trump announced Gabbard as his DNI pick in November, Democrats — and a handful of Republicans — voiced serious concerns about her 2017 secret meeting with then-President Bashar Assad of Syria; her sympathetic comments about Russia; her past efforts to repeal a powerful government surveillance tool, known as Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act’s Section 702; and her previous support for Edward Snowden, a former government contractor who leaked classified information to the press about those spying programs.

Before her nomination, Gabbard had argued that Snowden should be pardoned. But appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee at a confirmation hearing last month, Gabbard reversed course, saying she would not push for Snowden to be pardoned or receive clemency, even as she refused to call the former National Security Agency contractor a “traitor” when pressed by GOP senators.

In addition, Gabbard backed off her sharp criticism of Section 702 during the hearing, calling it a “crucial” tool after Congress passed new protections last year.

In the end, not a single Senate Republican bucked Trump and voted no on Gabbard. Moderate Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, a member of the Intelligence Committee and a key GOP swing vote, was one of the Republicans who had raised concerns about Gabbard but threw her support behind her just days after her confirmation hearing. Collins helped author the 2004 legislation that established the DNI position.

“The Office of the Director of National Intelligence … has become far larger than it was designed to be, and Ms. Gabbard shares my vision of returning the agency to its intended size,” Collins said in a statement this month. “In response to my questions during our discussion in my office and at the open hearing, as well as through her explanation at the closed hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Ms. Gabbard addressed my concerns regarding her views on Edward Snowden.”

Democrats were sharply critical of Gabbard, suggesting Republicans were more concerned about not angering Trump than national security.

“Instead of speaking fact and truth, Ms. Gabbard repeatedly speaks the language of falsities and conspiracy theories,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said on the floor Tuesday. “The director of national intelligence must be strong against America’s adversaries. But Ms Gabbard has spent her entire career sympathizing with the likes of Vladimir Putin and Bashar Al Assad.”

The director of national intelligence oversees the 18 agencies that make up the U.S. intelligence community, including the Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency. The DNI also advises the president on intelligence matters.

Gabbard, 43, an Iraq war veteran, has served for more than two decades in the Army Reserve. She had previously been a longtime Hawaii Democrat, serving in the state House and on the Honolulu City Council. She went on to represent Hawaii in the House of Representatives from 2013 to 2021. After she unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, Gabbard endorsed Joe Biden over Trump.

But she soured on the Biden administration and left the Democratic Party in 2022. Last October, Gabbard announced she was joining the Republican Party and endorsed Trump, appearing with him on the campaign trail in the run-up to the 2024 election. Senate to vote on advancing RFK Jr.'s health secretary bid

The Senate also planned to hold a key procedural vote Wednesday on the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s unorthodox pick for health and human services secretary. If Kennedy can win a simple majority, he could be confirmed by Thursday morning.

Some Republicans have expressed skepticism about Kennedy given his past opposition to vaccines and support for abortion. But during a shaky performance at his confirmation hearing last month, Kennedy said he now believes "vaccines have a critical role in health care." Asked about his position on abortion, he replied: “I agree with President Trump that every abortion is a tragedy," adding that abortion laws should be left to the states.

Last week, Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., a physician and chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee who was seen a crucial swing vote, announced his support for RFK Jr. after saying he extracted a half dozen key concessions from the nominee.

In Cassidy's words, RFK and the Trump administration committed to “protect the public health benefit of vaccination.” RFK also committed to having a "close collaborative working relationship” with Cassidy, the senator said, where they will speak multiple times a month. RFK will also appear before the HELP committee on a quarterly basis if needed, Cassidy said.