By Hannah Pantos

The UAE Banks Federation (UBF) recently organized the fourth edition of the “Cyber Wargaming 2025” event under the supervision of the Central Bank of the UAE and the UAE Cybersecurity Council. The event, the largest of its kind in the Middle East, saw participation from representatives of central banks across the GCC, leading banks, financial and technological institutions, cybersecurity experts, and senior banking and financial sector executives. In his keynote address, Dr.Mohammed Hamad Al Kuwaiti, Chairman of the Cybersecurity Council, emphasized that enhancing cybersecurity and protecting the nation’s digital achievements are top priorities for all partners. He highlighted the UAE’s significant investments in developing advanced infrastructure, building institutions on innovative foundations, and focusing on capacity building. The Cyber Wargaming event focuses on conducting simulations to assess cybersecurity teams’ capabilities to handle cyberattacks, identify strengths, and uncover vulnerabilities.

UAE boosts cybersecurity with simulations

The virtual attacks were designed to enhance knowledge about the techniques, methods, and procedures used by attackers, as well as the factors representing sources of threats. Jamal Saleh, Director General of the UBF, said that the federation considers cybersecurity a top priority due to the rapid adoption and deployment of advanced technologies in the banking and financial sector, which have increased risks related to transaction security and digital infrastructure.

Abdullah Matar Al Muhairi, Head of the Banking Supervision Department at the Central Bank of the UAE, said that the Central Bank is committed to ensuring the banking and financial sectors’ readiness to address any risks that may threaten the sector and its customers. He noted that organizing Cyber Wargaming reflects the banking sector’s ongoing efforts to develop its capabilities and provide the best conditions for customers to benefit from the achievements of digital transformation. The Cyber Wargaming 2025 event featured specialized sessions for cybersecurity teams, technicians, experts, and executives to develop their capabilities in managing various cybersecurity risk scenarios.

The UBF organizes several events and campaigns to raise awareness about fraud risks, anticipate future threats, and proactively address them by providing appropriate solutions to prevent fraud.

By Mathias Henry

India is home to 1.4 billion people, but around a billion among them don't have enough money to spend on any discretionary goods or services, a new report estimates.

The country's consuming class, which is effectively the potential market for start-ups or business owners, is only about as big as Mexico - 130-140 million people - according to the report from Blume Ventures, a venture capital firm.

There are another 300 million "emerging" or "aspirant" consumers, but they are reluctant spenders who've only just begun to open their purse strings, as click-of-a-button digital payments make it easy to transact.

What's more, the consuming class in Asia's third largest economy isn't "widening" as much as it is "deepening", according to the report. Which basically means India's wealthy population isn't really growing in numbers, even though those who are already rich are getting even richer.

All of this is shaping the country's consumer market in distinct ways, particularly accelerating the trend of "premiumisation" where brands drive growth by doubling down on expensive, upgraded products catering to the wealthy, rather than focusing on mass-market offerings.

This is evident in zooming sales of ultra-luxury gated housing and premium phones, even as their lower-end variants struggle. Affordable homes now constitute just 18% of India's overall market compared with 40% five years ago. Branded goods are also capturing a bigger share of the market. And the "experience economy" is booming, with expensive tickets for concerts of international artists like Coldplay and Ed Sheeran selling like hot cakes.

Companies that have adapted to these shifts have thrived, Sajith Pai, one of the report's authors, told the BBC. "Those who are too focused at the mass end or have a product mix that doesn't have exposure to the premium end have lost market share."

The report's findings bolster the long-held view that India's post-pandemic recovery has been K-shaped - where the rich have gotten richer, while the poor have lost purchasing power.

In fact, this has been a long-term structural trend that began even before the pandemic. India has been getting increasingly more unequal, with the top 10% of Indians now holding 57.7% of national income compared with 34% in 1990. The bottom half, meanwhile, have seen their share of national income reduce from 22.2% to 15%.

The latest consumption slump, however, has deepened amid not just a destruction in purchasing power, but also a precipitous drop in financial savings and surging indebtedness among the masses.

The country's central bank has also cracked down on easy unsecured lending that propped up demand post the Covid pandemic.

Much of the consumption spending of the "emerging" or "aspirant" class of Indians was led by such borrowings and "turning off that tap will definitely have some impact on consumption", said Pai.

In the short run, two things are expected to help boost spending - a pick-up in rural demand on the back of a record harvest and a $12 billion tax give-away in the recently-concluded budget. It won't be "dramatic", but could boost India's GDP - largely driven by consumption - by over half a percent, says Pai.

But major longer-term headwinds remain.

India's middle class - which has been a major engine for consumer demand - is being squeezed out, with wages pretty much staying flat, shows data compiled by Marcellus Investment Managers.

"The middle 50% of India's tax-paying population has seen its income stagnate in absolute terms over the past decade. This implies a halving of income in real (adjusted for inflation) terms," according to the report, published in January.

"This financial hammering has decimated the middle class's savings - the RBI [Reserve Bank of India] has repeatedly highlighted that net financial savings of Indian households are approaching a 50-year low. This pounding suggests that products and services associated with middle-class household spending are likely to face a rough time in the years ahead," it adds.

The Marcellus report also points out that white-collar urban jobs are becoming harder to come by as artificial intelligence automates clerical, secretarial and other routine work. "The number of supervisors employed in manufacturing units (as a percentage of all employed) in India has gone down significantly," it adds.

The government's recent economic survey has flagged these concerns as well.

It says labour displacement as a result of these technological advancements is of particular concern for a majorly services-driven economy like India, where a significant share of the IT workforce is employed in low value-added services sectors that are most prone to disruption.

"India is also a consumption-based economy, thus the fall in consumption that can result from the displacement of its workforce is bound to have macroeconomic implications. If the worst-case projections materialise, this could have the potential to set the country's economic growth trajectory off course," the survey said.